TBBC has been collaborating with ethnic community-based organisations (CBOs) to document the conditions in South East Burma since 2002. During 2010 and 2011, apart from interviewing key informants in fifty townships to assess the scale of forced displacement, poverty assessments have been conducted with over 2,600 households in fourteen townships. Estimates of displacement were guided by international standards and the poverty assessment was developed in consultation with humanitarian agencies based in Rangoon/ Yangon to ensure that vulnerability indicators are standardised. The maps below highlight some of the main findings from the latest report, Displacement and Poverty in South East Burma/ Myanmar. Go here to download previous reports or contact us if you would like to request a hard copy.

The paradox of democratic reform coinciding with an escalation of conflict in border areas during 2011 has been largely due to the expansion of the national armed forces’ (the Tatmadaw’s) command structure. As a result of orders for non state armed groups to give up their political aspirations and transform into Border Guard Forces (BGF) under the Tatmadaw’s control, there has been a resurgence of armed hostilities in Karen, Shan and Kachin states during the post-election period. This is in addition to the residual low-intensity conflict between the Tatmadaw and various armed opposition groups which has been ongoing for decades. As has been noted by the International Crisis Group, systematic abuses against civilians continue with impunity and the “brutal tactics and behavior of the Tatmadaw in these areas are mostly unchanged.”

It is likely more than coincidence that a resurgence of conflict in border areas has occurred just as plans for gas and oil extraction, hydro-electric dams, a deep sea port and trans-border economic zones in the ethnic States are gathering pace. The situation in Burma seems a classic example of ‘resource curse’ in which the incentive of large revenues from natural resources in a poorly regulated context promotes cronyism while undermining good governance and poverty alleviation. Preliminary agreements for most of these mega-development projects were already approved prior to the formation of state governments and legislatures. The lack of accountability and transparency in the planning process has raised concerns that local communities will suffer a heavy burden of the costs but the benefits will largely be enjoyed by neighbouring countries and corrupt generals.

TBBC’s partner agencies have documented the destruction, forced relocation or abandonment of more than 3,700 civilian settlements in South East Burma/ Myanmar since 1996, including 105 villages and hiding sites between August 2010 and July 2011. This survey estimates at least 112,000 people were forced to leave their homes during the past year, which is more than any other year since TBBC and partners started documenting displacement in 2002. While some fled into Thailand and others returned to former villages or resettled elsewhere, over 450,000 people currently remain internally displaced in the south eastern region. This is not a cumulative figure of everyone who has been displaced in the past decade, but rather a conservative estimate of the current scale of internal displacement covering the rural areas of 50 townships.

The highest rates of displacement during the past year were recorded in central Karen State’s border areas with Thailand, central Shan State and the northern Karen areas. A breakaway faction of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) resumed armed resistance in November 2010, and the resulting conflict led to the displacement of over 27,000 people from Myawaddy and surrounding townships. After the Tatmadaw broke a 22 year ceasefire agreement and resumed military offensives against the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) in March 2011, over 31,000 civilians fled from their homes across 10 townships. A further 28,000 civilians have been displaced from northern Karen State and eastern Pegu Region as a result of hydro-electric dams and counter-insurgency operations targeting civilians to undermine the Karen National Union (KNU).

Poverty alleviation has been recognised by the new government as a strategic priority for human development. While official figures estimate that a quarter of the nation live in poverty, this survey suggests that almost two thirds of households in rural areas of South East Burma/ Myanmar are unable to meet their basic needs. This estimate is derived from a composite indicator assessing access to safe drinking water, improved sanitation, adequate shelter, food security and indebtedness. Impoverishment is particularly severe in the conflict-affected townships of Kyaukgyi and Shwegyin in Pegu/ Bago Region and Thandaung in Karen/ Kayin State. Comparative analysis with household surveys conducted by the World Food Program suggest that that standards of living in rural areas of the South East are similar to conditions in Northern Rakhine State and far worse than those those reported from the central Dry Zone.

It remains to be seen how quickly and effectively the new government will be able to tackle poverty, but there has not yet been any relaxation of restrictions on humanitarian access into conflict-affected areas. In this context, the vast majority of foreign aid continues to be channelled into areas not affected by armed conflict areas such as the Irrawaddy/ Ayeyarwady Delta, the Dry Zone and Rakhine State. While responding to demonstrated needs, such engagement is building trust with authorities and supporting advocacy for increased humanitarian space throughout the country. Until this confidence building process translates into access, cross-border aid will continue to be vital to ensure that the needs of civilians who are affected by conflict in the South East and cannot be reached from Yangon are not further marginalised.

[Rev: Oct11]